sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

Access to all charts for regsitered sentix voters

Headline Index at all-time low!

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At the beginning of 2018, the euro zone is still in robust shape. As in the past few months, only a few investors are expecting major unrest in the euro zone. In January 2018, the overall index even fell to a historic low of 6.9%! If you want to look out for possible problem areas, the focus will naturally be on Italy. The forthcoming parliamentary elec-tions are a source of uncertainty. The Italian sub-index is rising against the general trend.

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Catalonia election without influence

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The euro-zone ends 2017 in a stable state. Although the regional elections in Catalonia did not bring about any change in the status quo of Catalonia's autonomy issue, investors see no reason to draw negative conclusions for the euro zone. The sentix Euro Break-up Index rose only marginally from 7.91% to 8.35%. The sub-index for Spain rose from 0.63% to 1.24%. That's not a critical level yet.

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Germany without Jamaica, Europe without stress

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The last few weeks, which in Germany have been marked by a tough and ultimately unsuccessful struggle for a new government in the form of a Jamaican alliance, have made no difference to the Euro zone from the investors' point of view. The sentix Euro Break-up Index fell slightly to 7.9% in November and is still trading near its all-time low. This means that investors do not worry about Germany's stability and in fact assume that the "grand coalition" will continue, either explicitly or implicitly through a minority government.

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Catalonia without any noticeable effect

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The probability of a break-up of the Eurozone measured by the sentix euro break-up index has slightly increased in October. It rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.1%. This slight increase is quite surprising in view of the unrest in Spain. The Spanish sub index has even fallen from 0.9% to 0.6%. A little more concern for investors is Austria. The foreseeable participation of the FPÖ in the government has contributed to an increase in the sub index of Austria in the last two months from under 0.3% to more than 0.8%.

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Rest before the Bundestag elections. But after that?

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There is peace on the Euro front. At least this was the case before the Bundestag elections. The sentix Euro break-up index dropped slightly again to 7.66% in September. This is the lowest value since July 2014, when the all-time low of the index was reached at 7.61%. All major country indices have yielded in line with this tendency. But whether this peaceful state still holds after the election is questionable.

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