Amazingly relaxed

Written by Manfred Hübner | 28 August 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

Investors look at the Eurozone with astonishing serenity. Neither the prospect of an early ending of the ECB purchase program nor the decision of the Karlsruhe Constitutional Court (referral to the European Court of Justice) or the political ideas in Italy (introduction of a double currency) have unsettled investors. The sentix Euro Break-up In-dex drops to 8.0% (from 8.9%) and the sub-index for Italy also drops from 5.5% to 4.6%!

Read more...

Stabilized Eurozone

Written by Patrick Hussy | 31 July 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

During the silly season, political topics are scarce goods in Euroland. In fact, awareness is completely focused on the stabilization of the Euro. This is an indication for investors that the Eurozone solidarity is increasingly stable. In this environment, the Euroland overall index of the sentix Euro break-up index has hardly changed. Its marginal adjustment in July from 8.6% to 8.9% shall not be interpreted turn around or warning signal, but rather is due to its meanwhile low value. This can also be seen in low values of measured exit risks of individual Eurozone countries.

Read more...

France provides momentum for the eurozone

Written by Patrick Hussy | 26 June 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

Following the French parliament elections, the fears of a break-up of the eurozone continue to decline. The overall Euroland index fell back to 8.6% (before:11.4%), the lowest level since September 2014. In particular, the Greek sub-index continued its dynamic recreation. This trend could be also noticed for the Italian sub-index. The general trend of reassurance could not be transferred to the index, which measures the contagion risk. It rose from around 34% to 38%.

Read more...

Reduced risk of contagion

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 May 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

Following the French presidential elections, investors' perception of the euro crisis has once again relaxed considerably. The overall Euroland index fell to 11.4%, the lowest since autumn 2015. While the Greek sub-index remains virtually unchanged, the probability of exit from France and Italy drops significantly. As a result, the risk of contagion is reduced to around 34%.

Read more...

France relaxed

Written by Manfred Hübner | 01 May 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The first election round to the French presidential election has appeased investors' minds. Only 13.6% of investors are now expecting the euro to break-up, after 18.7% in the previous month. For France, the probability of an Euro ex-it (“Frexit”) decreases to 3.5% after an high of 8,4% end of February. However, Greece and Italy remain the most likely potential candidates for exit.

Read more...