A single repetition

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In December last year, we published an unusual data constellation at this point. While the sentix overconfidence in-dex for equities showed an upper extreme, indicating increased risk exposure, the counterpart for US bonds was at a low. The difference between the two observations produced an extreme signal, which had only been reached once before - on the eve of the financial crisis. Now, in February 2018, another such extreme signal is emerging. A unique repetition!

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sentix Investmentmeinung 07-2018

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Wie ungemütlich wird es?

Nach der heftigen Korrektur an der Wall Street Anfang Februar folgte ein ebenso beherzter Rebound. Alles also halb so schlimm wie es scheint. Doch die sentix-Daten sprechen eine andere Sprache. Die Investoren fassen keinen Mut und sehen die Korrektur nicht als reinigendes Gewitter. Stattdessen sendet der Strategische Bias das Signal einen weiteren Vertrauensschwundes.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50, S&P 500, EUR-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 07-2018

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A dollar rally could tarnish Gold versus Oil

Around a month ago we noted that a lot of positive sentiment was baked into commodities as a grouping, as well as emerging equity markets. The latest sentix survey suggests some of that optimism has receded. In the case of commodities, an interesting divergence has emerged in terms of investors’ medium-term bias on Gold (rising) and Crude Oil (falling sharply). The gap between strategic bias readings on both markets has now reached historic highs, which fits with recent US dollar weakness given Gold’s stronger inverse historic correlation. A bounce in the dollar could see this Gold-Oil gap begin to close, especially with Crude Oil strategic bias readings now at the low-end of their historic range. See charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix policy barometer: Stress increases

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In February 2018, according to the investors surveyed by sentix, the pressure on the financial markets from policymakers will noticeably increase again. The sentix policy barometer drops from -0.1 to -0.34 points. The main reasons for this are the tugging around the "brexit", but also the forthcoming elections in Italy.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 06-2018

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Zwischenerholung

Trotz stark fallender Aktienpreise messen wir keine Angst oder gar Panik unter den Anlegern. Dieser Befund widerspricht scheinbar der Diagnose in den Medien, die allenthalben von Panik an den Märkten reden. Aber die aus Preisen abgeleitete Beobachtung ist eines, die konsistente Messung von Stimmungen ein anderes!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: S&P 500, EUR-JPY, Bund Future

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