sentix ASR Essentials 19-2017

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Telecoms sentiment upswing in the face of falling relative

Monthly survey questions on investors’ views on the medium-term outlook for European sectors reveal a less positive view on Energy and Basic Resources versus the market, which chimes with participants’ still negative medium-term strategic bias on Oil. At the same time, sentiment also weakened over the month in the case of defensive sectors such Healthcare, Food & Beverages and Utilities. However, on the more-defensive sector front an interesting divergence has also recently emerged in the case of Telecoms. Survey findings are consistent with a gradual improvement in sentiment towards Telecoms versus the market, even as the sector relative has hit ten year lows. See page 2 for charts.

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Bitcoin Bubble - revisited

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Sie blüht wieder, die schönste aller Blüten: die Bitcoin-Blase. Doch wann und wie wird sie platzen? Eine behavioristische Bestandsaufnahme.

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Again lots of new data

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Since 2001 we collect sentiment information for various markets. Now we can announce the biggest expansion of our sentiment coverage since then!

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sentix Investmentmeinung 18-2017

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Macron ist da – und jetzt?

Keine Überraschung war für die Anleger der Sieg von Emanuel Macron bei den französischen Präsidentschaftswahlen. Die Anleger haben ihm bereits in der Vorwoche freudig erwartet. Das Ausmaß der Kurssteigerungen war dabei durchaus beachtlich, wenn man bedenkt, dass diese Anleger eigentlich nicht wirklich eine Perspektive für Aktien auf dem aktuellen Niveau sehen. Nun ist er da, was kommt jetzt?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX, EUR-JPY, USD-JPY, Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 18-2017

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A less negative bias on bunds versus EZ equities

A couple of interesting angles emerged from the latest sentix survey. In a relative market context, the gap between investors’ medium-term strategic bias on bunds versus Eurozone equities continues to close even though the relative path of price performance is still heading lower. This reflects a still negative medium-term bias on equities, set against a sharply improving bias on bunds (see Chart 9, p4), which chimes with survey readings that indicate that economic expectations are seen as a slightly less bearish theme for bonds. There are also signs of a change in investors’ medium-term views in commodities, with survey participants having become a little less negative on the medium-term outlook for Crude Oil, even as prices have dropped below $50pb. See Page 2 for charts.

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