US economic slowdown - America first!

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 June 2017
Posted in sentix Economic News

The economy in Euroland continues to show its friendly side. The situation for the Eurozone is rising for the sixth time (!) In a row and reaches the highest level since January 2008 with 36 points. In Germany, the economy is in even better shape. Here, the situation assessment reaches 66.8 points the highest since the start of the sentix data collection in 2009. Despite this very good assessment of the situation, the expectations remain stable. This is surprising, because from sentix investor's point of view, the world's largest economy is weakening!

sentix ASR Essentials 22-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 June 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Inflation expectations boosting bunds

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors’ medium-term strategic bias on bunds remains much less downbeat than it was coming into this year (see Chart 9, page 4). However, monthly questions on bond ‘themes’ provide both good and bad news for bond market bulls. On a positive tack, investors view inflation as a much less Eurozone bond-bearish theme than it was coming into 2017, consistent with the 13-week rate of change in bund yields seen in the first half of the year. On a negative note, however, economics is still seen as a notably bearish theme for bonds. At the moment, inflation expectations appear to be winning out over concerns over the economic outlook. It may leave bunds at risk to any signs that inflationary spectre has not been truly laid to rest. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 21-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 May 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Das Unsicherheits-Level steigt

Auf das abnehmende Grundvertrauen haben die Anleger mit einer Anpassung ihrer Positionierung auf neutrale Niveaus reagiert. Damit muss die von uns seit Wochen favorisierte Markt-Konsolidierung nicht mehr zwingend eintreten. Andererseits bleibt das technische Bild angespannt und saisonal beginnt eine schwierigere Phase. Auf all das reagieren die Anleger mit zunehmender Nervosität!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX, S&P 500, Nikkei

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Reduced risk of contagion

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 May 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

Following the French presidential elections, investors' perception of the euro crisis has once again relaxed considerably. The overall Euroland index fell to 11.4%, the lowest since autumn 2015. While the Greek sub-index remains virtually unchanged, the probability of exit from France and Italy drops significantly. As a result, the risk of contagion is reduced to around 34%.

sentix ASR Essentials 21-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 May 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

A less negative strategic bias on Crude

Last week we noted the continued interplay in sentiment towards emerging equity markets and commodities. At a market level, weakening investor opinion on the medium-term outlook for Chinese equities remains a feature, consistent with receding optimism on commodities as an asset class. However, on this latter front, there are some chinks of light amidst the prevailing recent gloom, with investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude Oil having become less negative in recent weeks. Notably, it is an improvement that has not been derailed by initial market disappointment at the outcome of last week’s OPEC meeting. See Charts 2-4, p2.